The Race for the NL Central: Cards vs. Cubs

As of August 11th here are the standings for the NL Central:

St. Louis Cardinals 63-51

Chicago Cubs 58-52 3 Games Back

Before their respective games tonight the teams have 48 (Cardinals) and 52 (Cubs) left. With that I am going to dissect the schedule, team statistics and other variables to determine a winner.

Before All-Star Break:

Cardinals: 49-42

Cubs: 43-43

Post All-Star Break

Cardinals:14-9

Cubs: 15-9

Post All-Star Break

Cardinals: 15-9

Cubs: 15-10

Last 10 games:

Cardinals: 8-2

Cubs: 4-6

1-Run Games:

Cardinals: 13-11

Cubs: 15-16

Home Record:

Cardinals: 32-23

Cubs: 33-19

Road Record:

Cardinals: 31-28

Cubs: 25-33

Run Differential:

Cardinals: +39

Cubs: +27

Runs P/Game:

Cardinals: 4.45

Cubs: 4.42

Batting Average:

Cardinals: .258

Cubs: .253

Pitching ERA:

Cardinals:3.75 (4th in NL)

Cubs:3.89

Batting Avg. Against

Cardinals: .261

Cubs: .248

Bullpen Holds:

Cardinals: 56

Cubs: 60

Fielding Percentage:

Cardinals: .983

Cubs: .982

Double Plays Turned:

Cardinals: 122 (1st in NL-The Cardinals pitching staff leads the Major Leagues in Ground Ball Outs)

Cubs: 101

Stolen Bases:

Cardinals: 49

Cubs: 40 (last in NL)

Now for some individual statistics:

The Cardinals have three pitchers with double digit wins:

Wainwright - 13 (tied for NL Lead)

Carpenter - 11

Pineiro - 10

The closest Cubs' starting pitcher with double digit wins is Ted Lilly with 9 - and he is on the DL.

Wainwright and Carpenter sport ERA's under 3 - 2.73 (6th in NL) and 2.26 (2nd in NL) respectively.

Ryan Franklin is 4th in the NL with 27 saves (NL Leader has 28) and Kevin Gregg has 22 and is 9th in the NL.

# of Batters batting over .300

Cardinals: 3 (Pujols .327, Holiday .459, Lugo .345 - granted Holiday and Lugo only have 16 and 14 games with the Redbirds)

Cubs: 2 (Ramirez .317 and Fox .301)

Now the Cardinals have HUGE batting advantage and that man is Albert Pujols:

4th in NL in Avg - .327

1st in HR's - 36 (tied with Mark Reynolds)

1st in OB % - .448, Slugging .681, OPS % 1.129, Total Bases 267, RBI's 100, Runs Scored 87, and Runs Created 118

2nd in Walks - 84

The Cubs only had one player, Derek Lee in the top 10 in any of those categories - HR with 23 (tied for 9th) and RBI's with 74 (10th).

To look at the remaining schedule:

The two teams play each other a total of 3 games IN St. Louis (September 18-20. After that the Cardinals only have 12 games left and the Cubs have 13 games left (both end up at home).

The Cardinals and Cubs have 15 of the last 48 and 52 games against opponents with winning records; Cardinals are 21-21 and the Cubs 19-30 against teams over .500; Cardinals are 42-30 and the Cubs are 39-22 against teams under .500

Home Games left:

Cardinals: 23

Cubs: 29

Road Games left:

Cardinals: 25

Cubs: 23

This benefits the Cubs who have been AWFUL on the road this year (see above).

The Cardinals play 6 games on the road against teams with winning records (Dodgers and Rockies); The Cubs have 11 games on the road against teams with winning records (Dodgers (4 games), Cardinals, and Giants (4 games)).

Cardinals’ record vs. teams to play: 41-29 (have not played San Diego)

Cubs’ record vs. teams to play: 45-36 (have not played New York)

Intangibles:

Injuries: Right now the Cubs have Ted Lilly and Carlos Zambrano on the DL-their two best pitchers (Randy Wells has pitched well for them). It has been speculated that Aramis Ramirez could be heading back to the DL with his nagging shoulder injury. The Cardinals do not have any MAJOR players on the DL except for Todd Wellemeyer and his role was up in the air before this recent incident.

Mr. Momentum: Since acquiring Mark DeRosa, Julio Lugo, and Matt Holliday the Cardinals have had a record of 22-15 and have given the team (most notably the offense) a major boost. Teams now have to deal with Holliday if they walk Pujols (which was a MAJOR problem pre-Holliday).

"So the Cardinals are back in the thick of another pennant race, and the team is getting hot — having won 12 of its last 15 games — to edge out to a three-game lead over second-place Chicago. And it also looks like La Russa has a fairly impressive horse to ride down this playoff stretch run. They are 12 games over .500 for the first time all season, and if you look at the schedule, you can see that the Redbirds are in the softest part of that 162-game season, with only three of their next 18 games against a team with a winning record."

So who wins the NL Central: It looks overwhelming for the Cardinals led by their aces Wainwright and Carpenter who can almost guarantee a win every game they pitch and the offense led by Pujols, who is having an MVP and triple-crown worthy season. Although both teams have relatively easy schedules left, though both have to go TO LA and face the Dodgers. If the Cardinals have not separated themselves by September 18 when the Cubs come to St. Louis, then that series could very well likely determine the NL Central Champion-it's the Cardinals for the taking.

All Stats came from ESPN.com, MLB.com, and BaseballReference.com